With the assumption that structural conditions in a country are linked to the occurrence of violent conflict, the GCRI collects 25 variables in 6 risk dimensions (political, security, social, economic, geographical/environmental, demographic) and uses statistical regression models to calculate the probability and intensity of violent conflict.
Variables and dimensions of the GCRI model
Several model design decisions, including definition of the dependent variable, predictor variable selection, data imputation, and probability threshold definition, have been set in light of the model’s direct application in the EU policy support on conflict prevention. While the GCRI remains firmly rooted by its conception and development in the European conflict prevention policy agenda, it is validated as a scientifically robust and rigorous method for a baseline quantitative evaluation of armed conflict risk.