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INFORM Epidemic Risk

The INFORM Epidemic Risk Index assesses the risk of countries to epidemic outbreak, which would exceed the national capacity to respond to the crisis.

The INFORM Epidemic Risk Index is a prototype version of hazard dependent INFORM Risk Index created in 2018. It was developed under the technical lead of the JRC and in close collaboration with WHO for the epidemic components. Through extensive consultation, the WHO identified the underlying risk drivers of epidemic, which enabled the development of a conceptual framework for epidemic risk assessment in countries. JRC developed the INFORM Epidemic Risk Index as an adaptation of the INFORM Risk index, preserving the integrity of the original model. The risk score ranges from 0-10, where 10 is the highest risk. In its original version it is covering four groups of Infectious diseases on the base of the mode of transmission and the epidemiological triad addressing agent, host and environment: 1) Zoonoses, (2) Vector borne, (3) Person-to-person (P2P), (4) Foodborne, and Waterborne.  

Download INFORM Epidemic Risk Index 2020 v0.4.1

The INFORM Epidemic Risk Index was adapted to better reflect the situation of the Covid-19 pandemic. As transmission is now dominated by human-to-human transmission, the “Hazard & Exposure dimension” of the model was narrowed down to the P2P (meaning people to people) component only. The adapted version of the index is called INFORM Epidemic P2P Risk Index.

Download INFORM Epidemic P2P Index 2020 v0.4.1

The INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index is an experimental adaptation of the INFORM Epidemic P2P Risk Index and aims to identify: “countries at risk from health and humanitarian impacts of COVID-19 that could overwhelm current national response capacity, and therefore lead to a need for additional international assistance”. It can be used to support prioritization of preparedness and early response actions for the primary impacts of the pandemic, and identify countries where secondary impacts are likely to have the most critical humanitarian consequences. The main scope of the INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index is global and regional risk-informed resource allocation, i.e. where comparable understanding of countries’ risk is important. It cannot predict the impacts of the pandemic in individual countries.

Download INFORM Covid-19 Risk Index v0.1.2

Download INFORM COVID-19 Adaptation Concpet paper