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The Future of Conflict Early Warning: New Technologies and Policy Impact

The Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (DRMKC) of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, in collaboration with the Conflict Prevention Team of the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI) of the European Commission, is organising the workshop: “The Future of Conflict Early Warning: New Technologies and Policy Impact” on 19th March 2025 in Brussels.

The Future of Conflict Early Warning: New Technologies and Policy Impact

 

Background

Preventing conflicts is a priority for the European Union (EU). Based on the 2011 Council Conclusions on Conflict Prevention building on the Treaty of Lisbon (Article 21c), the EU received a strong mandate to engage in conflict early warning. Close cooperation between policy makers and scientific experts is key to design tools for anticipating, monitoring and addressing conflicts.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre supports the conflict Early Warning System led by the EEAS Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support Division and the FPI - Crisis Response, Conflict Prevention and Peace Building Unit - by providing scientific expertise through the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), the Dynamic Conflict Risk Model (DCRM), and conflict risk analytics through the Science4Peace Portal. These resources help to address the conflict warning-response gap, enabling decision-makers to take preventive actions based on statistical-quantitative evidence, and a deeper understanding of the underlying causes and dynamics of national and regional violent and conflict events. and addressing the conflict warning-response gap by enabling decision-makers to take preventive actions based on statistical-quantitative evidence, and a deeper understanding of the underlying causes and dynamics of national and regional violent and conflict events.

The Workshop

In recent years, armed conflicts have become more prevalent, severe, and complex, increasingly internationalized and driven by rivalries on the global stage. Existing conflict models do not fully capture this complexity, underscoring the need for new models and tools.

At the same time, rapid advancements in AI have enabled new approaches to data extraction and risk modelling. In this context, it is essential to foster dialogue between researchers and policymakers to develop a common understanding of how emerging technologies can be used in a practical way for preventive actions.

The workshop brings together policymakers in the field of conflict prevention, who will illustrate use cases for data and models in their day-to-day work, and scientists, who will present new approaches to both data collection and risk modelling.

The overall aim is to bridge the gap between researchers and policymakers and align ongoing research more closely with practical needs.

Expected Outcomes

  • Improved understanding among participants of how cutting-edge technologies can enhance conflict early warning systems.
  • Strengthened collaboration between scientists and policymakers in early warning and conflict prevention.
  • Identification of key areas where science can directly inform policy decisions, ensuring that conflict risk models are tailored to the day-to-day work of policymakers.

Leaflet

Links

For more information:

[1] Access to the portal is limited to staff from the European Institutions and Member States’ ministries dealing with conflict prevention, analysis and crisis preparedness. Users can request access through: https://science4peace.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Registration

Registration is now closed - Participation in this event is by invitation only. For those who would be interested in attending the workshop, please contact us at the following e-mail: JRC-science4peace@ec.europa.eu

Agenda

Wednesday, 19 March 2025

  1. 8:00 - 9:00
    Welcome and Registration

    Berlaymont building, Robert Schuman room

  2. 9:00 - 9:20
    Opening Statements

    Chair: Christina Corbane, Deputy Head of Unit, JRC.E1 (European Commission)

    Tom De Groeve
    Head of Unit, JRC.E.1 (European Commission)

    Guillem Riutord
    Head of Division PCM.2, European External Action Service (EEAS)

    Jesper Pedersen
    Head of Unit, Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI)

  3. 9:20 - 10:00
    Practical Perspectives: Current Use and Limitations of Data in Conflict Early Warning

    Chair: Christina Corbane, Deputy Head of Unit, JRC.E1 (European Commission)

    Branka Panic
    AI for Peace
    AI for Peace - From Prediction to Action

    Chiara Gentile - Louisa Brög / Alejandro Vivancos
    European Commission, JRC - European External Action Service (EEAS)
    From Data to Action: Aligning Conflict Early Warning Tools with Policy Needs

  4. 10:00 - 10:20
    Coffee Break
  5. 10:20 - 11:20
    Tech Innovations in Conflict Early Warning: Text Mining, Event Extraction, and Next-Generation Models

    Chair: Christina Corbane, Deputy Head of Unit, JRC.E1 (European Commission)

    Simon Polichinel von der Maase
    Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO
    AI-Driven Conflict Early Warning: Transforming Data into Actionable Policy

    Christopher Rauh
    IAE-CSIC, University of Cambridge, Barcelona School of Economics
    Forecasting Conflict and Political Instability using News Text: An Overview

    Marlene Urscheler
    Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, OHCHR
    From Risk to Prevention: Human Rights-Based Early Warning and Predictive Analysis

    Michael Colaresi
    University of Pittsburgh
    AI Without Artificial Certainty: An Overview of the Benefits of Forecasting Conflict Fatalities With Uncertainty

     

  6. 11:20 - 12:10
    Panel discussion: Bridging Science and Policy: Maximizing Research Impact

    Moderator: Sarah Bressan

    Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi)

     

    Isabelle Arradon
    International Crisis Group

    Katayoun Kishi
    Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, ACLED

    Simon Polichinel von der Maase
    Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO

    Jonas Jurek Florian Koll
    PREVIEW, German Federal Foreign Office

    Jean Baptiste Valmary
    Deputy Head of Division, European External Action Service (EEAS)

  7. 12:10 - 13:00
    Global Dimensions: Bringing International Conflict into Early Warning Systems

    Chair: Juliette Lobel, Head of Sector Conflict Prevention, PCM.2 (EEAS)

    Guy Schvitz
    European Commission, Joint Research Centre
    Beyond Borders: Monitoring Interstate Conflict in a Changing World

    Nils W Metternich
    University College London
    International relations and the internationalization of internal conflicts

    Jesse Kommandeur
    The Hague Center for Strategic Studies
    Meet GINA: Data-driven Geopolitics

  8. 13:00 - 14:00
    Buffet Lunch
  9. 14:00 - 15:15
    Interactive session

    Chair: Sarah Bressan, Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi)

    Working group discussions to bring together policy makers and researchers to develop a common understanding of key challenges in current early warning systems and priorities for future research. Results of the working groups will be presented and discussed in plenary.

  10. 15:15 - 15:45
    Break
  11. 15:45 - 16:30
    Closing statements: Main Takeaways

    Sarah Bressan
    Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi)
    Key takeaways from presentations and group discussions

    Concluding remarks

    Jean Baptiste Valmary
    Deputy Head of Division (EEAS)

    Eva Troya
    Deputy Head of Unit (FPI)

    Tom De Groeve
    Head of Unit, JRC.E.1 (European Commission)

  12. 17:00 - 18:30
    Light Apéro

Venue

Berlaymont building, Robert Schuman room
Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles, Belgium