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Portfolio 25 INFORM Workshop 2024

Data and models for forecasting humanitarian crisis

Intro

The workshop was held at the JRC, Ispra on March 12th and 13th. The workshop was designed to address the growing demand for improved forecasting methodologies in disaster risk management and humanitarian aid. As part of the JRC Portfolio 25 on Enhanced Situational Awareness and the INFORM Warning project, this event intended to facilitate a collaborative space that brings together experts from fields such as artificial intelligence, data science, and social sciences, with a focus on leveraging unique datasets and state-of-the-art machine learning tools. The aim was to refine our ability to predict disaster impacts and foresee humanitarian crises more accurately from 1 to 12 months in advance.

We focus on seasonal weather hazard forecasting, characterising humanitarian emergencies through datasets, and employing machine learning for impact modelling. In particular the sessions covered the following issues: weather hazard forecasting on seasonal/sub-seasonal scales, challenges for disaster impact forecasting, the application of AI for impact forecasting, and strategies for improving data for characterizing humanitarian crises.

Our ambition would be to establish a knowledge-sharing framework that encourages collaboration, advances research, and improves the speed of response, resource distribution, and life-saving capacity in disaster-prone areas. The workshop delved into the following areas: overcoming challenges in seasonal hazard and impact; forecasting ; utilizing data for assessing and characterizing humanitarian crisis; artificial Intelligence for impact modelling. Attendees contributed to the workshop by presenting short talks, lasting about 15 minutes each. The goal of these presentations was to help us create a comprehensive plan for better forecasting and preparation methods research by pinpointing existing gaps and suggesting improvements. The final aim was to establish ongoing partnerships beyond the duration of the workshop.

Agenda

  1. 12-Mar-24
    Challenges for hazard forecasting on seasonal/sub-seasonal scales

    Peter Salamon
    JRC, GloFAS

    Presentation
    English
    (2.0 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Evangelous Voukouvalas & Thomas Saillour
    JRC, TBA & Global surge model and applications

    Presentation
    English
    (4.0 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Daniele de Rigo
    JRC, Wildfire Danger

    Presentation
    English
    (4.4 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Arthur Essenfelder
    JRC, Drought hazard predictions and impacts

    Marco Turco
    Universidad de Murcia, Challenges for Seasonal Wildfire and Drought Predictions

    Presentation
    English
    (2.4 MB - PDF)
    Download

  2. Challenges for impact forecasting

    Jeremy Pal
    CMCC, Assessing Future Humanitarian Crisis Response to Remote Climate Events in Africa Applying a Storyline Approach

    Presentation
    English
    (1.6 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Chiara Proietti & Stefano Paris
    JRC, Disturbances and tropical cyclone forecast

    Presentation
    English
    (5.2 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Lauro Rossi
    CIMA, The African Multi-Hazard Early Warning for Early Action System

    Presentation
    English
    (13.5 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Justin Ginnetti
    IFRC, Forecasting crises on GO: past, present and future

    Presentation
    English
    (4.9 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Arturo León y Jorge Hernández
    GIS4Tech, INUNDia: High-precision flood monitoring and flood impacts quantification using two-dimensional hydrological-hydraulic modelling and satellite techniques.

    Presentation
    English
    (1.5 MB - PDF)
    Download

  3. AI for impact forecasting

    Gustau Camps-Valls
    Universitat de Valencia, Modelling and understanding complex systems with causal inference and LLMs

    Presentation
    English
    (24.9 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Duccio Piovani
    WFP, Modelling and Forecasting Food Insecurity from Real Time data

    Presentation
    English
    (4.7 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Melissande Machefer
    JRC, An Overview of modelling to forecast and explain Food Security

    Presentation
    English
    (1.4 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Francisco Abarca y Ronny Meza
    GIS4tech, PREDISAN: Predictive Model for Food Security in Central America based on Surveys and Secondary Data

    Presentation
    English
    (7.9 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Andrea Ficchi
    Politecnico di Milano, AI enhancements of forecasts of tropical cyclone rainfall and floods for humanitarian action: Insights from the CLINT and PRINTFLOODS projects

    Presentation
    English
    ( 2.4 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Alessia Matano
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Understanding and forecasting humanitarian crises: case studies from the Horn of Africa and Mozambique

    Presentation
    English
    (2.5 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Claudio Bosco
    JRC, Forecasting migration flows with ML

    Presentation
    English
    (0.7 MB - PDF)
    Download

  4. 13-Mar-24
    Improving data for characterizing humanitarian crisis

    Chiara Rizzi
    ACAPS, Getting a dataset ready for forecasting

    Presentation
    English
    (0.7 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Damien Jusselme
    IOM, Horizon scanning and Country Prioritization

    Presentation
    English
    (1.6 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Michele Melchiorri
    JRC, global baseline data on human settlements from the Global Human Settlement Layer

    Presentation
    English
    (4.2 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Alessandro Bitussi & Elisa Destro
    JRC, Humanitarian impact of natural disasters: use of Open AI for the extraction of human loss structured data from daily analytical monitoring activities of the ECML

    Presentation
    English
    (2.2 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Sylvain Ponserre
    IDMC

    Presentation
    English
    (3.9 MB - PDF)
    Download

  5. Challenges for impact forecasting

    Nikolas Galli
    Politecnico di Milano, Water and food security perspectives to unveil environmental conflict complexities

    Presentation
    English
    (2.4 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Christoph Deuster
    JRC, Disaster Displacement and Migration Intentions

    Presentation
    English
    (1.2 MB - PDF)
    Download

    Leonardo Milano
    UNOCHA, Extracting signals from the data on the Humanitarian Data

    Presentation
    English
    (2.3 MB - PDF)
    Download

Outcomes

The workshop emphasized the urgent need for a formal framework to facilitate collaboration among disaster risk management professionals, humanitarian agencies, and researchers. Participants advocated for a strategic plan to enhance forecasting and preparedness research, addressing user needs, and integrating various platforms to provide access to optimal data and information. The potential of impact forecasting to refine response strategies and resource distribution was highlighted, underscoring the importance of data-driven decision-making and performance analysis for effective crisis management.

Emphasis was also placed on the necessity for sustained partnerships and the critical role of AI in disaster preparedness and response, particularly in event extraction, data analysis, and prediction.

The workshop identified significant data gaps hindering AI applications and underscored the significant role of Large Language Models (LLMs) in enhancing current datasets, improving event extraction, and supporting expert knowledge. Finally, the exploration of interconnections between various climate stressors and their impact on conflict, food insecurity, and migration was recognized as a key area of interest.