Until recently, conflict predictions in the context of the GCRI focused on large-scale, country-level violent events with a time-horizon of 1 to 4 years relying on structural variables with yearly updates. New advances in data availability at the sub-national level and computing techniques, coupled with the increasing need for higher-frequency predictions for anticipatory action, motivated the developments of short-term conflict forecasting models for situational awareness and conflict prevention.
In addition, emerging challenges related to climate change together with environmental degradation are recognized to either accelerate or deepen ongoing or latent vulnerabilities and instabilities of conflict. In some fragile societies, climate change and environmental degradations are considered as conflict drivers, particularly when coupled with demographic imbalances as set out in the Concept for an Integrated Approach on Climate Change and Security[1], the Climate Change and Defence Roadmap[2] and Commission Communication on the European Green Deal[3].
While there is a scientific consensus that climate change can act as a threat multiplier for state instability and social disruptions in already vulnerable societies, it remains a challenge to establish a generalized causal link between vulnerability to weather shocks and conflict. This is due to the heterogeneous geographical impact of the climate and conflict nexus and its indirect repercussions through other factors such as food insecurity and water stress. Given the complexity of the interplay between climate change, environmental degradation and peace and stability, the proposed workshop aims at bringing together the scientific evidence on conflict dynamics with the policy maker's need for action-based policies related to climate change.
In the light of the strive for constantly improving conflict forecasting methods to better meet evolving policy needs and building on the outcomes of the workshop on Climate and Conflicts that took place in Brussels on the 9th of February 2019, this year’s GCRI workshop focusses on (i) short-term forecasting for situational awareness and conflict prevention and (ii) the climate change-conflict nexus.
The general goal of the workshop is to promote dialogue and share knowledge among scientific experts and policy-makers on both topics. The workshop audience will mainly consist of professionals from the scientific/academic world and the EU institutions.
The discussion will be encouraged through three invited speakers by session and moderated panel discussions where policy-makers and scientists will have a space to review the policy needs and scientific solutions with the objective of reaching a common understanding of priorities for evidence-based policy support.
[1] EEAS(2021)770
[2] EEAS(2020)1251
[3] COM(2019) 640 final