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The Global Conflict Risk Index workshop on climate, conflict and short-term forecasting

The European Commission's Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (DRMKC), in collaboration with the Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support Division of the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the Foreign Policy Instrument services (FPI) of the European Commission, is organizing the annual Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) workshop on 22nd September 2022 in Ispra.

The Global Conflict Risk Index workshop on climate, conflict and short-term forecasting





Preventing conflicts is a priority for the European Union (EU). Based on the 2011 Council Conclusions on Conflict Prevention building on the Treaty of Lisbon (Article 21c), the EU received a strong mandate to engage in conflict early warning. Close cooperation between policy makers and scientific experts is key to design tools for anticipating, monitoring and addressing conflicts.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre supports the conflict Early Warning System led by the EEAS Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support Division and the FPI - Crisis Response, Conflict Prevention and Peace Building Unit - in providing its scientific expertise through the GCRI   and addressing the conflict warning-response gap by enabling decision-makers to take preventive actions based on statistical-quantitative evidence, and a deeper understanding of the underlying causes and dynamics of national and regional violent and conflict events.


Until recently, conflict predictions in the context of the GCRI focused on large-scale, country-level violent events with a time-horizon of 1 to 4 years relying on structural variables with yearly updates. New advances in data availability at the sub-national level and computing techniques, coupled with the increasing need for higher-frequency predictions for anticipatory action, motivated the developments of short-term conflict forecasting models for situational awareness and conflict prevention.

In addition, emerging challenges related to climate change together with environmental degradation are recognized to either accelerate or deepen ongoing or latent vulnerabilities and instabilities of conflict. In some fragile societies, climate change and environmental degradations are considered as conflict drivers, particularly when coupled with demographic imbalances as set out in the Concept for an Integrated Approach on Climate Change and Security[1], the Climate Change and Defence Roadmap[2] and Commission Communication on the European Green Deal[3].

While there is a scientific consensus that climate change can act as a threat multiplier for state instability and social disruptions in already vulnerable societies, it remains a challenge to establish a generalized causal link between vulnerability to weather shocks and conflict. This is due to the heterogeneous geographical impact of the climate and conflict nexus and its indirect repercussions through other factors such as food insecurity and water stress. Given the complexity of the interplay between climate change, environmental degradation and peace and stability, the proposed workshop aims at bringing together the scientific evidence on conflict dynamics with the policy maker's need for action-based policies related to climate change.

In the light of the strive for constantly improving conflict forecasting methods to better meet evolving policy needs and building on the outcomes of the workshop on Climate and Conflicts that took place in Brussels on the 9th of February 2019, this year’s GCRI workshop focusses on (i) short-term forecasting for situational awareness and conflict prevention and (ii) the climate change-conflict nexus.

The general goal of the workshop is to promote dialogue and share knowledge among scientific experts and policy-makers on both topics. The workshop audience will mainly consist of professionals from the scientific/academic world and the EU institutions.

The discussion will be encouraged through three invited speakers by session and moderated panel discussions where policy-makers and scientists will have a space to review the policy needs and scientific solutions with the objective of reaching a common understanding of priorities for evidence-based policy support.



[1] EEAS(2021)770

[2] EEAS(2020)1251

[3] COM(2019) 640 final

GCRI leaflet


For more information on the GCRI


[1] For EEAS and EC staff, access is granted automatically. For other users, access should be requested by sending an e-mail to JRC-science4peace@ec.europa.eu.


Participation in this event is by invitation only. For those who would be interested in attending the workshop, please contact us at the following e-mail: JRC-GCRI@ec.europa.eu



Thursday, 22 September 2022

  1. 08:30 - 09:00
    Arrival to JRC and welcome coffee in building 58c

  2. 09:00 - 09:15

    Alessandra Zampieri

    Robert Krengel

    Guillem Riutord Sampol

  3. 09:15 - 10:00
    The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), latest developments and the dynamic conflict risk model


  4. 10:00 - 10:20
    Coffee break

  5. 10:20 - 12:30

    (45 min presentations followed by a moderated discussion and Q&A)

    Moderator: Sarah Bressan
    Global Public Policy Institute

  6. The Conflict Forecast Project

    Christopher Rauh
    Cambridge University

  7. Violence Early-Warning System: A New Fatality Prediction Model

    Håvard Hegre
    Uppsala Conflict Data Program

  8. Dynamic vs. Structural Conflict Risk Forecasting Models and their Inter-connections

    Thomas Mayer and Stefano Ferri
    German Federal Foreign Office

  9. Round table and Q&A

    Nils Metternich
    University College London

    Nils Weidmann
    University Konstanz

    Wolfgang Schneider

    Katayoun Kishi
    Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project

  10. 12:30 - 14:00
    Lunch break

  11. 14:00 - 16:10

    (45 min presentations followed by a moderated discussion and Q&A)

    Moderator: Silja Halle
    United Nations Environment Programme

  12. How Climate Change Fuels Deadly Conflict

    Ulrich Eberle
    International Crisis Group

  13. Weathering Risk, a Climate and Security Risk and Foresight Assessment

    Janani Vivekananda
    Adelphi and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  14. Climate-Related Peace and Security Risks

    Karen Meijer
    Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

  15. Round table and Q&A

    Halvard Buhaug
    Peace Research Institute Oslo

    Nina von Uexkull
    Uppsala University

    Mathieu Couttenier
    Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon

  16. 16:10 - 16:30
    Coffee break

  17. 16:30 - 17:00
    Key messages and concluding remarks

    Jonas Claes

    Tom De Groeve

  18. 20:00 - 22:00


European Commission – Joint Research Centre- Via Enrico Fermi, 2749 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Auditorium - Building 58c

European Commission – Joint Research Centre
Via Enrico Fermi, 2749
21027 Ispra (VA), Italy