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Results and data

INFORM Climate Change results are publicly available. They are presented in INFORM Climate Change Brochure and shared in Excel format.

Downloads

INFORM Climate Change Brochure
English
(4.6 MB - PDF)
Download 
INFORM Climate Change Brochure data
English
(69 KB - XLSX)
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Results interpretation

The Brochure and Excel sheet contain the results for two scenario combinations, which we consider plausible and that represent significantly different possible futures.
These are referred to as:
  • PESSIMISTIC – RCP 8.5 (high emissions) and SSP 3 (Regional Rivalry – high challenges for both mitigation and adaptation, including higher population growth)
  • OPTIMISTIC – RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP 1 (Sustainability – low challenges for both mitigation and adaptation, including lower population growth).
The results of INFORM Climate Change are presented as:
  • Snapshots of current (baseline) and the future (2050, 2080) risk resulting from climate change across different scenarios (scale of 0-10, classifications from very low to very high risk)
  • Change in the absolute numbers of people exposed to individual hazards in the future (2050, 2080), compared to the current (baseline) estimates across different scenarios.
  • Change in risk, Hazard&Exposure dimension as well as Natural and Human hazard categories between the current (baseline) and the future (2050, 2080) across different scenarios (0-10, large decrease to large increase in risk).
  • Vulnerability gap (0-10, large decrease to large increase), which shows the change in Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity (see INFORM Risk Index 2022) that would be required to maintain the baseline level of risk (i.e. to compensate for future increases in risk due to climate, demographic and socio-economic factors).